By: Ernest Hadiwijaya) *
Indo Barometer shows the results that the difference between the two Presidential Candidate pairs is at 21 percent. Elektabilitas Joko Widodo – Ma’ruf Amin is 50.2 percent.
“The difference is 21 percent, candidate number 01 fulfills electability of 50.2 percent while candidate pair 02 has 28.9 percent, while the remaining around 20 percent still keep their choices confidential,” said Hadi Suprapto, researcher of the Indo Barometer.
Hadi conveyed, the 2019 presidential election was a repeat of the 2014 presidential election yesterday. In a face-to-face simulation, the incumbent presidential candidate Joko Widodo had an electability superior to Prabowo Subianto. The difference between the two reached 22.3 percent.
“Jokowi was chosen as much as 51.2 percent, Prabowo was 28.9 percent, while the one who still kept his choice a secret was 19.9 percent,” he said.
From the simulations of each of the two vice presidents between Ma’ruf Amin and Sandiaga, Ma’ruf was still superior to Sandi in obtaining community support, with a difference of 12.4 percent. Mufuf has electability of 44.5 percent, while Password is 32.1 percent. People who have not determined their choice are 23.4 percent.
The survey was conducted in 34 provinces in Indonesia on February 6 – 12 2019. The number of samples in this survey was 1,200 respondents, with a margin of error of approximately 2.83 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level. The sampling method used is multistage random sampling. Data collection techniques used were face-to-face interviews of respondents using questionnaires, and survey respondents were Indonesian citizens who already had the right to vote based on applicable regulations, namely citizens who were at least 17 years or older, or were married at the time of the survey.
Indo Barometer discovered the personality and abilities aspects of President Joko Widodo’s candidate superior to Candidate President Prabowo Subianto. In terms of personality, Jokowi excels in six aspects, while Prabowo only excels in two aspects. Jokowi excelled in the aspect of attention and was close to the people 85.9 percent, experienced 84.6 percent, intellectuals 84.5 percent, religiously obedient 80.6 percent, able to lead 78 percent and clean corruption 66.4 percent. While Prabowo excelled in 2 aspects, 85 percent firmness and 79.9 percent authority.
In researching the aspects of the capabilities of the two candidates, Jokowi’s position excelled in all aspects, such as being able to overcome security problems 79.3 percent were able to overcome social problems 78.2 percent, were able to overcome legal problems 69.4 percent, and were able to overcome economic problems in general 6 percent.
If the presidential election is held today, Jokowi – Ma’ruf has electability of 50.2 percent, while Prabowo – Sandiaga is 28.9 percent. Sisamua about 20 percent still keep their choices secret. Jokowi’s personality also received praise from South Kalimantan Ulama KH Asmuni, a cleric known as the Lake Master, who said that Jokowi was a gentle but firm figure.
Praise also came from the National Economic and Industrial Committee (KEIN) Soetrisno Bachir, according to him Jokowi had truly reaped success in the economic field. Under his leadership, the gap also diminished. So, it is very important for President Jokowi to continue his leadership for 2 periods. It also believes, if Jokowi is re-elected then growth is no longer 5 percent, but can reach 7 percent. However, in order for this hope to be achieved, domestic political stability is needed, because political conditions are quite influential on the economic field.
The popularity and electability of Jokowi as the incumbent presidential candidate until now has proven unable to be pursued by his rivals in the 2019 presidential election. The electability of Gerindra Party Chairman Prabowo Subianto as the closest rival is even far behind. This can be seen from a national survey issued by the Alvara Research Center which states that anyone who is advanced in the 2019 Presidential Election will not be able to keep up with Jokowi’s electability.
Harry said, in terms of popularity, Jokowi won 97.7 percent with top of mind 58.0 percent. While Prabowo only reached 96.8 percent and top of mind 33.5 percent.
“You could say whoever Jokowi’s opponent would definitely lose if he saw the results of this survey,” said Harry
According to him, candidates outside Jokowi and Prabowo have not been prominent, the electability of other candidates is still very low. From various contestation simulations against any candidate, Jokowi has not been defeated.
“That is, Jokowi’s opportunity to be re-elected as president is higher than other candidates,” he said.
) * The author is an observer of political issues