JAKARTA – Chief Economist of Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Fakhrul Fulvian, believes 2026 will be a crucial year for the Indonesian economy.
According to him, for the first time, clearer, more measurable, and more cohesive coordination between fiscal authorities and the government is evident, so the direction of economic policy is expected to be more synchronized than in previous years.
“Fiscal coordination and government policy are starting to look more organized and measured. This provides a stronger foundation for the national economy to move forward,” said Fakhrul during a dialogue with a private radio station in Jakarta.
He emphasized that amidst still-high global economic uncertainty, the government cannot simply provide space for the private sector. He said the government must be actively involved and willing to take economic risks to ensure that the recovery and growth process is not entirely borne by the business sector.
Fakhrul assessed that the 2026 economic growth target of 5.4 to 5.6 percent is realistic and achievable. However, this requires fair risk sharing between the government and the private sector. “The economic slowdown cannot be borne by one party alone. The government needs to share the risk to keep the business sector moving,” he said.
In the interview, he highlighted the importance of risk-sharing schemes between the government and banks, including through credit guarantees and credit insurance.
This scheme is considered crucial for encouraging banking to channel financing to the real sector amidst the prevailing cautious attitude.
Fakhrul also emphasized that 2026 must be a year of execution, not just planning or mere discourse. He argued that the success of economic policies must be measured by their actual impact on the ground and the real conditions experienced by the public.
“State spending must be accelerated from the start of the year and not back-loaded, as delays in spending will lower business expectations,” he said.
He reminded banks that current economic conditions are different from those of a decade ago. An overly defensive approach is deemed irrelevant, and credit growth must be continuously encouraged to support national economic growth.
According to Fakhrul, the main challenge for the economy in 2026 will be adapting to increasingly uncertain global economic changes while maintaining people’s purchasing power so that domestic consumption remains the main driver of growth.
He believes the benefits of international trade are no longer as great as before, so policy focus needs to be directed at strengthening domestic economic resilience.
He continued, saying that economic recovery is expected to occur first in the regions, particularly commodity-based areas and those supported by government spending. Therefore, the public is urged to remain cautious but not panic, and to begin to identify business opportunities in the regions.
On the other hand, Fakhrul emphasized that efforts to eradicate corruption must continue alongside encouraging economic activity to ensure clean and sustainable growth. (*)