By: Ahmadi Rahmat
In the results of a survey conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), the Jokowi pair – Ma’ruf Amin, managed to outperform the challengers. The candidate pair number 01 succeeded in gaining 54.9% of the votes, while Prabowo – Sandiaga received 32.1% of the votes.
Perindo Party Politician Denny Adin argues that the success of Jokowi-Ma’ruf outperformed the challengers in several survey institutions is something that is considered reasonable. Especially ahead of the simultaneous elections in 2019, many groups declared support for Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin.
“In the days that approached the voting it was natural that the results of Jokowi’s – Ma’ruf Amin’s survey were superior. Now, TKN is sure, we are still superior and there are more and more declarations of support from various groups, both academics, organizations and communities abroad, “he said.
The amount of support for Jokowi, certainly can not be separated from its performance in the first period. He considered, the former Governor of DKI Jakarta was carrying out rapid infrastructure development so that the benefits could be felt by the community.
“At present it is undeniable that the increase in infrastructure exceeds that of previous presidents from the 1998 reform,” Denny said.
Besides the SMRC, survey institutions such as LSI, Denny JA, Cyrus Network, PolMark Indonesia, Populi Center, Y-Publica, Alvara Research Center and Indonesian Political Indicators all placed the Jokowi pair – Ma’ruf Amin in a superior position against Prabowo – Sandiaga in terms of electability.
Cyrus Network placed Jokowi Ma’ruf with 55.2% while the challenger Prabowo – Sandi earned 36%. While the survey results from Denny JA, showed a considerable difference, namely 58.7% for Jokowi – Ma’ruf and 30.9% for Prabowo – Sandi.
The Populi Center survey shows that the Jokowi – Ma’ruf pair is still superior to candidate pair 02 Prabowo – Sandiaga. The survey shows that the incumbent electability still managed to excel with 54.1% while Prabowo-Sandi achieved 31.0%. The 14.9 percent did not answer / provide support.
“These results are relatively the same as the survey findings in the previous months,” said Dimas Ramadhan as a Populi Center researcher.
In December 2018, the results of the Populi Center survey also showed that electability was not much different where Jokowi – Maufuf obtained 52% while Prabowo Password was 30.7%.
This clearly shows that there were no significant changes related to the electability of the two candidates after the first candidate debate which was held on January 17, 2019. Both of them rose, Paslon number 01 rose 2.1% while Paslon number 02 rose 0.3 percent.
Certainly it is natural that the implementation of the candidate debate does not have a significant effect on the electability of the two candidates. This is because the majority of people have long been polarized and have their own choices.
According to Djayadi, a researcher at the SMRC, the candidate debate will only affect the people who have not made a choice and have floating voters. Namin, usually the amount is not much.
The survey results, according to Andreas Hugo as Chair of the PDI-P DPP, said that this reflected the voter community who preferred and had proven presidential candidates and had a good track record.
Andreas Pareira also added that the survey results were also evidence that the public still believed more than facts that had been circulating so far. This means that various hoaxes aimed at Jokowi do not fully affect electability and critical voter communities.
Even the millennial generation did not escape the fact that it was the group with the highest number of voters, in fact it favored the candidate pair number 01 Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin.
“This group is critical and rejects negative issues, the pessimism that has developed so far. Because they see the facts of optimism that occur in this nation, “added Andreas Pareira.
Not only survey institutions in Indonesia, but Australian survey institute Roy Morgan, said that presidential candidate number 01 Jokowi still outperformed challenger Prabowo Subianto with a figure of 58% compared to 42%.
This advantage occurs in the category of voters in the segment of women and rural communities, and is supported by economic performance.
Roy Morgan said a number of segments explained the differences in the advantages of each candidate pair. In the voter segment based on age 25-34 years, Jokowi is quite superior with scores of 61.5% compared to 38.5%, elders aged 35-49 years 59.3% compared to 40.5% and voters aged 50 years and above 58.5 % compared to 41.4%.
Although some survey institutions have placed Jokowi – Maufuf in a position that is superior to Paslon Prabowo – Sandi. However, the bearer of Prabowo – Sandiaga, namely the Gerindra Party, believes that the electability of the Paslon that is carried by him is superior to the Petahana Presidential Candidate.
This was stated by Deputy General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party Arief Poyuono. The superiority of Prabowo’s electability over Jokowi, according to Arief, was based on a survey institution in which Arief himself was not pleased to name the survey institution.
In the political sphere, the survey results before the election certainly cannot be a benchmark 100 percent. Because after all the calculation done by the KPU will be a manual calculation later. Of course it will be a slap if there are parties who have already prostrated gratitude but apparently did not succeed in occupying the position of President.
*) Udayana University students