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SMRC calls the electability of Ganjar Pranowo overtaking other candidates


Jakarta – The electoral level of the PDI Perjuangan presidential candidate (Bacapres) Ganjar Pranowo continues to strengthen and is able to overtake other candidates. This is known from the results of the latest Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) Survey.

SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani revealed that in the closed choice simulation of three names, Ganjar Pranowo was ahead of the other two candidates, such as Prabowo Subianto or Anies Baswedan.

“In the closed choice simulation of the three names, Ganjar received 35.9 percent support, Prabowo 33.6 percent. Anies is in third place with 20.4 percent support. Those who don’t know are 10.1 percent,” he said in an official release delivered on Wednesday (23/8).

The SMRC Research Director added that in the last two years, namely from May 2021 to August 2023, support for Ganjar rose from 25.5 percent to 35.9 percent, while Prabowo’s stagnated from 34.1 percent to 33.6 percent.

“And Anies tends to fall from 23.5 percent to 20.4 percent,” he added.

The strengthening of Ganjar Pranowo’s electoral numbers, added Deni, has continued to occur since the white-haired leader was officially declared by the PDI Perjuangan as a presidential candidate in the 2024 General Election (Pemilu).

It is known that Ganjar’s electoral numbers have continued to increase, namely from 33.2 percent in early April 2023 to 39.2 percent in early May 2023 or an increase of 6 percent, but dropped again until the survey in mid-July 2023 to 30.8 percent.

“Then (Ganjar) returned to strength in the last survey in early August to 35.9 percent,” said Deni.

For information, the SMRC survey was conducted nationally from 31 July to 11 August 2023. The survey population is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in general elections, namely those who are 17 years of age or older, or have been married when the survey was conducted.

The basic sample of 3,710 respondents was selected randomly (stratified multistage random sampling) from the population with a proportional number. Oversample is carried out in small provinces so that the total sample for each province is at least 100 respondents.

Meanwhile, the total final sample is 5,000 respondents. The response rate (respondents who can be interviewed validly) is 4,260 or 85 percent. A total of 4,260 respondents were analyzed.

The margin of error for the survey with this number of samples nationally is estimated at +/- 1.65 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

Previously, the Indonesian Political Indicator Survey Institute had also released the results of their opinion poll and showed the same result that Ganjar Pranowo outperformed all names.

In the survey, it is known that the electoral figure owned by the PDI Perjuangan presidential candidate reaches up to 35.2 percent.

In this regard, the Main Researcher for Indicators, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, explained how the electability distance ratio of Ganjar was the highest.

“The result is Ganjar 35.2 percent, Prabowo 33.2 percent, and Anies 23.9 percent,” he said.

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