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SMRC Electability Survey: Strong Reward at 46.3 Percent, Prabowo 42.5 Percent, and Anies 23.5 Percent


Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the results of a survey related to the electability of the presidential candidate (bacapres) in the 2024 presidential election.

SMRC Director Deni Irvani explained that in the last 2 years, from May 2021 to August 2023, support for Ganjar has increased from 25.5 percent to 35.9 percent, while Prabowo has stagnated from 34.1 percent to 33.6 percent, and Anies tends to decreased from 23.5 percent to 20.4 percent.

Deni continued, when the survey was started, none of the three candidate names got more than 50 percent. This makes it possible that there will still be a second round in the 2024 presidential election.

“In this three-name simulation, no candidate won more than 50 percent of the dominant vote. Therefore, according to Deni, there is a possibility that the presidential election will take place in two rounds if the three names are competing and the elections are held during the survey,” he said.

Deni shows that Popularity has an effect on the electability of each presidential candidate. For voters who know Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo’s electability reached 42.5 percent, while Ganjar’s was 46.3 percent.

“In the analysis of the data on the group of voters who know Prabowo and also know Ganjar, Ganjar got 46.3 percent of the vote; Prabowo 42.5%; and those who don’t know are 11.2%,” said Deni.

“In the group of voters who know both, Ganjar is more competitive and tends to excel over Prabowo. This means that Ganjar’s electability has the potential to increase and he can beat Prabowo if Ganjar’s popularity is the same as Prabowo’s,” continued Deni.

For this reason, based on his conclusion, Ganjar and Prabowo have strong electability and are competing to leave Anies Baswedan’s competitor.

“From the results of this survey, it can be concluded that Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto are competing very tightly, and both of them have a significant advantage over Anies Baswedan if the election is held when the survey is conducted,” concluded Deni.

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