Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the results of a survey regarding the electability of presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election. The results of the SMRC survey showed that the electability of Ganjar Pranowo was strengthening, while Prabowo Subianto was down while Anies was below.
In the three-name simulation, Anies Baswedan received 20.4 percent public support; Prabowo Subianto 33.6 percent; and Ganjar Pranowo 35.9 percent.
According to Deni, the votes for Ganjar and Prabowo in the three-name simulation are balanced (not significantly different) because the difference is less than twice the margin of error.
According to him, this electability trend can be seen from the decline in undecided voters from 16.9 percent in May 2021 to 10.1 percent in the last survey.
“Prabowo means not taking undecided voters 2 years ago. Who took more? I think the one that experienced a significant increase was the reward from 25.5 percent to 35.9 percent. An increase of 10 percent,” said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani quoted from the SMRC TV Youtube account, Wednesday (23/8/2023).
Deni explained that in the last 2 years, from May 2021 to August 2023, support for Ganjar rose from 25.5 percent to 35.9 percent, while Prabowo’s stagnated from 34.1 percent to 33.6 percent, and Anies tended to fall from 23. .5 percent to 20.4 percent.
He continued, support for Ganjar tends to fluctuate, however, support for Ganjar continues to strengthen.
“Support for Ganjar strengthened after he was declared a presidential candidate from 33.2 percent in early April 2023 to 39.2 percent in early May 2023 (up 6 percent), but had weakened in the mid-July 2023 survey to 30.8 percent, then returned to strength in the last survey in early August 2023 to 35.9 percent,” he said.
For Prabowo, support for him tends to decrease in August compared to the previous month.
“Prabowo had strengthened from 31.5 percent in early April 2023 to 37.8 percent in mid-July 2023, then tended to weaken in the survey in early August to 33.6 percent,” he said.
Meanwhile, based on the trend, Anies experienced a decline in electability in August from the previous month, namely to 20.4 percent.
“Meanwhile, Anies’ electability tends to weaken from 24.2 percent in early April 2023 to 20.4 percent in the survey in early August 2023,” he said.
