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SMRC Survey Results: Ganjar Pranowo’s electability has increased and Prabowo’s has decreased significantly


Jakarta – Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the results of an electability survey of prospective presidential candidates (bacapres) in the 2024 presidential election which resulted in an increase in the Ganjar Pranowo Presidential Elections and Prabowo Subianto’s Presidential Candidates “Free Fall” alias decreased.

In the simulation of the two names, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto, currently Ganjar’s earnings are increasing while Prabowo’s are decreasing although they are slightly different.

SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani said, Ganjar Pranowo’s 41.5 percent and Prabowo Subianto’s votes were dropping.

“From December 2021 to August 2023, in a closed choice simulation of two names, Prabowo and Ganjar will continue to compete fiercely,” said Deni in an official release which was broadcast virtually, Wednesday (23/8).

Deni explained that support for Ganjar strengthened when he was declared a presidential candidate, from 38.8 percent in early April 2023 to 43.9 percent in early May 2023, an increase of 5.1 percent.

The electability of the presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto was reported to have decreased in various national survey simulations conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) from 31 July to 11 August 2023.

On the other hand, Ganjar Pranowo is getting stronger and getting more and more support from various groups.

“Ganjar Pranowo strengthened in the last survey in early August to 41.5 percent,” said Deni.

The SMRC will be held nationally from 31 July to 11 August 2023. The survey population is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in general elections.

Namely, those who were aged 17 years or more, or were already married when the survey was conducted.

The basic sample of 3,710 respondents was selected randomly (stratified multistage random sampling) from the population with a proportional number.

Oversample is carried out in small provinces so that the total sample for each province is at least 100 respondents. The final sample total is 5,000 respondents.

The response rate (respondents who can be interviewed validly) is 4,260 or 85 percent. A total of 4,260 respondents were analyzed.

The national margin of error for the survey with this number of samples is estimated at +/- 1.65 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

Selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by trained interviewers.

Quality control on the results of the interviews was carried out randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by the supervisor by returning to the selected respondents (spot check). In quality control, no significant errors were found.

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