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SMRC’s Latest Survey, Ganjar Still Able to Win in the 2024 Presidential Election


JAKARTA — The latest simulation from a survey carried out by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) shows that Ganjar Pranowo will still be able to excel in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres). 

This refers to the latest survey they released, namely last Thursday (14/9). 

In the survey, the PDI Perjuangan Presidential Candidate (Capres) was simulated as a pair with the former Governor of West Java Province (Jabar) Ridwan Kamil. 

As a result, Ganjar and Ridwan Kamil were able to obtain electability of up to 35.4 percent of the support vote, which outperformed other candidates.

The founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani himself even admitted that the votes of Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar had not been able to increase Anies’ electoral figures at all.

“This means that when Anies was paired with Muhaimin, this data shows that Anies’ votes have not increased,” he said.

For information, the survey from SMRC was held in the period 5 to 8 September 2023.

The survey involved up to 1,212 respondents who were selected via the random digit dialing (RDD) method or random telephone number generation.

The margin of error contained in the data is estimated to be approximately 2.9 percent at a confidence level of up to 95 percent.

The reason is, in the survey, the Anies Muhaimin couple only received 16.5 percent of the votes.

Political observer from Trias Politika, Agung Baskoro, believes that the duet between Ganjar Pranowo and Ridwan Kamil is considered capable of complementing each other.

“The Ganjar-RK duet complements each other because they have different mass bases. “In a demographic context, Ganjar has a niche in Central Java, while RK in West Java,” he said.

Apart from that, if we talk about the supporting parties between the two figures, they are indeed in different political habitats because the PDI Perjuangan is identical as a left nationalist party.

“Golkar tends to work on the national (central) voter niche – catch all parties,” said Agung.

Previously, data from the Ipsos Indonesia research institute also showed that the white-haired leader had the highest electability, namely up to 40.12 percent of the vote.

Ipsos Senior Researcher, Arif Nurul Imam, believes that the Ganjar rebound phenomenon is really happening and has made him now the most superior.

“Today, Ganjar Pranowo rebounded to become the most superior presidential candidate,” he said.

The high electability possessed by the leader born in Karanganyar Regency certainly cannot be separated from his figure.

The author of the book ‘Dismantling Ganjar’s Thoughts’, Hamid Basyaib considers that the figure of Ganjar Pranowo is a leader with original thoughts.

“Ganjar has original thoughts in understanding the conditions of society. “His track record for 10 years leading Central Java has been no problems in terms of political freedom,” he said.

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