Jakarta – New and non-parliamentary political parties face a number of challenges in order to pass the 4% electoral threshold. Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute Djayadi Hanan outlined a number of challenges that must be faced.
First, political parties are faced with a low Party ID (party identity). Second, political party volatility is high at the provincial level, but tends to be low at the national level.
“So there is a tendency of more than 50%, voters will vote for the same party in the 2024 election,” said Djayadi in the National Webinar held by the Moya Institute, Friday 21 July 2023. The webinar has the theme “Challenges and Opportunities for New Political Parties in the 2024 Election”.
Third, the interest of voters to support new parties tends to decrease. The highest new party performance occurred in 2004.
“The new party’s total vote in 2004 was 21.3 percent, only losing to Golkar which received 22 percent more. That number decreased to 7.2% in 2009 and beyond,” said Djayadi.
Fourth, the number of parties that have entered parliament in recent elections tends to be stable. This means that people’s choices tend to be stable towards the same parties.
“The average age of the party is above 15 years. Only two parties are over 10 years old. This means that the parties in the DPR will survive. This makes it difficult for new parties to enter.”
Fifth, new political parties are not widely known in the public. The new party, according to Djayadi, only has about 60 percent of the popularity to sustain it in parliament. “Party socialization efforts are key. The problem is the residence time is less than seven months. It is necessary to accelerate the recognition of the party by the public,” he said.
Sixth, all political parties have the same tendency regarding economic, political and social policies. The political parties have not been able to differentiate themselves from each other in this matter.
“That is what causes the choice of party to be stable. What distinguishes between parties at this time is only a matter of how the relationship between Islam and politics. The question is, which niche will the new party play in?” Djayadi said.
Even so, there are still opportunities for new political parties and non-parliamentary political parties to pass the threshold.
“Party ID in Indonesia is very small. This means that, in theory, 85 percent of Indonesian voters can easily switch to another political party. If you only use this one indicator, the swing voter will be very high. In addition, internet users are also very high. The internet makes all parties have the same opportunity. Apart from that, Indonesian voters are dominated by Gen Y and Gen Z. Opportunities are open for new political parties if they can read the opportunities of this younger generation,” he said.
Observer on global and strategic issues Prof. Ambassador Imron Cotan said, every political party has the same space and opportunity to gain the largest number of voters in the upcoming elections. However, Imron specifically highlighted that new political parties have relatively bigger challenges starting from the process of forming them which is not easy, costs are not cheap, as well as having to deal with electoral battles against political parties that have long existed. To cover this deficiency, the empowerment of local leaders with a national perspective, such as Tuan Guru Bajang from NTB, is needed. The establishment of the principle “Think Nationally, Act Locally” in the recruitment of politicians can break down the domination of the political elite that has accumulated in Java Island, resulting in political diversification throughout the region.
Gelora Party Secretary General Mahfudz Siddiq said that new parties faced challenges due to the consequences of the General Election and Presidential Election which were held simultaneously.
“When the issue of the Presidential Election strengthens, what is called a cottail effect appears. Political parties get votes from their support for presidential candidates. Parties that do not have support for presidential candidates will face electability problems,” said Mahfudz.
Perindo Party Daily Chairperson TGB Zainul Majdi said that the big opportunity for new political parties in the current disruption era is to reach the Millennial Generation and Generation Z voters, whose numbers are very large.
“Young voters tend to want something new, they don’t want to be tied to the old standard. The meeting between the Presidential and Legislative Elections can be a challenge and an opportunity for the new political parties,” said Zainul.