By: Bara Winatha*)
The 2026 El Niño phenomenon is a challenge that Indonesia must seriously anticipate because it has the potential to impact various strategic sectors, from food security and water availability to public health and regional economic stability. The government views this climate phenomenon not simply as a seasonal weather issue, but as a cross-sectoral issue that requires strong synergy between the central government, regional governments, technical institutions, academics, and the community. Early coordination is crucial for implementing targeted mitigation measures and minimizing the impact of El Niño as much as possible.
Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian stated that all regional heads need to immediately strengthen coordination with the Regional Disaster Management Agency, the agriculture agency, the irrigation agency, and all relevant regional agencies to address the potential impacts of El Niño. He stated that anticipatory measures must be formulated based on scientific data provided by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, the National Disaster Management Agency, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Public Works to ensure that all policies are truly aligned with conditions on the ground.
The preparedness of local governments will significantly determine Indonesia’s ability to maintain food stability, control inflation, and protect the public from the impacts of the dry season, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon. Cross-sector coordination is increasingly crucial because El Niño has distinct characteristics from the normal dry season. This phenomenon is part of global climate dynamics that cause changes in rainfall distribution in various regions, including Indonesia, which can impact agricultural productivity, water reserves, and even the risk of forest and land fires.
Indonesia faces a different geographical situation than subtropical countries facing extreme heat waves. Indonesia’s location on the equator makes the country’s atmospheric characteristics more influenced by high humidity and tropical ocean dynamics. Therefore, the primary threat to be wary of is not a heatwave like in Europe, but rather reduced rainfall, which can last for several months during a strong El Niño phase.
The Head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, Teuku Faisal Fathani, stated that the 2026 El Niño has entered the strong category with a probability of around 98 percent. He stated that the public needs to understand that El Niño and the dry season are two different phenomena, as the dry season is an annual cycle, while El Niño is a global climate phenomenon that occurs periodically. He explained that a condition that requires vigilance is when El Niño occurs simultaneously with the dry season, resulting in lower rainfall than normal.
El Niño is expected to last between nine and twelve months. However, this does not necessarily mean Indonesia will experience a dry season throughout the entire period. The main concern is the period from July to October 2026, when several regions are expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall compared to the climatological average.
The areas estimated to receive the greatest impact include Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and southern Papua.
The government is also continuing to strengthen water resource infrastructure as part of its adaptation strategy. The availability of reservoirs, dams, lakes, reservoirs, and raw water networks is crucial for maintaining water supplies during the dry season. Optimizing water reservoir management is expected to meet the needs of irrigation, public consumption, and electricity generation.
Furthermore, the agricultural sector has prepared various strategies to mitigate the impact of El Niño on national food production. Providing irrigation pumps, implementing a rotating irrigation system, and providing seed assistance to farmers experiencing crop failure are part of the ongoing adaptation measures. Meanwhile, the risk of forest and land fires is also a major concern. Decreased soil moisture during El Niño can increase the potential for fires, particularly in drought-sensitive peat areas.
Bogor Agricultural University forestry expert Herry Purnomo said that Indonesia will not experience extreme heat waves like those seen in Europe due to its distinct geographic characteristics and tropical climate. He believes a far more relevant threat to Indonesia is drought caused by El Niño, which could increase the risk of forest and land fires if not properly addressed. He explained that forests play a crucial role in storing water, so efforts to maintain forest cover must be part of any strategy to address climate change.
Herry believes that rewetting peat areas is necessary before the dry season reaches its peak. Peatlands that remain wet will be better able to withstand the risk of fires than areas that have experienced prolonged drought. According to Herry, efforts to address climate change cannot rely solely on the government. Community participation through tree planting, reducing carbon emissions, and protecting forest areas will significantly contribute to increasing environmental resilience.
A collaborative approach is also a crucial foundation for strengthening national preparedness. The central government provides data, climate information, and national policies, while local governments are responsible for translating this information into concrete actions tailored to their respective regional conditions. This collaboration will be even more effective if supported by the business sector, universities, civil society organizations, and local communities.
*) The author is a social and community observer.