By: Abdul Razak)*
The El Niño phenomenon, predicted to last from May 2026 to May 2027, is a serious concern for the government. As the peak of the dry season, predicted to occur from July to October 2026, various mitigation measures are being strengthened to anticipate the risks of drought, forest and land fires (karhutla), disruptions to agricultural production, and reduced clean water availability. These efforts demonstrate the government’s role in protecting the public from the impacts of climate change, which have the potential to impact various sectors of life.
Home Affairs Minister Muhammad Tito Karnavian emphasized that all regional governments need to immediately increase their preparedness for the impacts of El Niño. According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the phenomenon’s impact is expected to be most pronounced between July and October 2026, leaving regional governments little time to prepare anticipatory measures tailored to their respective regions.
According to Tito, there are two main impacts that require attention: the increased potential for forest and land fires due to hotter and drier weather and reduced water availability, which could impact the agriculture, plantation, and hydroelectric power sectors. Therefore, the central government has instructed various ministries and agencies to strengthen early mitigation efforts to minimize these risks.
The Ministry of Agriculture, for example, continues to strengthen its irrigation and pumping programs to maintain water supplies for agricultural land. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) has prepared weather modification measures in several regions if needed. Regional governments have also been asked to immediately hold coordination meetings with the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD), the agriculture agency, the irrigation agency, and other relevant agencies to ensure all mitigation measures are implemented in an integrated manner.
Furthermore, Tito emphasized the importance of cross-sector synergy in addressing El Niño. He stated that governors, regents, and mayors need to strengthen coordination with the Regional Leadership Coordination Forum (Forkopimda), the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), the Indonesian National Police (Polri), river basin offices, agricultural extension workers, village governments, and fire departments so that forest and land fire prevention and drought management efforts can be implemented quickly, measurably, and effectively.
Alex Indra Lukman, Deputy Chairman of Commission IV of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI), believes the experience of dealing with El Niño in 2015 should serve as an important lesson in developing anticipatory measures this year. At that time, approximately 217,000 hectares of agricultural land were destroyed, impacting national food production.
Alex believes the government needs to prioritize strengthening water resources infrastructure as a strategic step in facing the dry season. Rehabilitating irrigation networks, building reservoirs, providing drilled wells, pumping irrigation, piped irrigation, and relocating water pumps to areas prone to drought are considered crucial solutions for maintaining agricultural productivity.
In addition to strengthening infrastructure, Alex also pushed for the accelerated distribution of various agricultural production inputs, from seeds, fertilizers, agricultural tools and machinery, to animal feed, especially for areas highly vulnerable to the impacts of El Niño. This step is considered crucial to ensure farmers can maintain production despite limited water supplies. He also emphasized the importance of strengthening the early warning system based on BMKG data. By mapping drought-prone areas in a timely manner, the government can monitor developments in national food production and take more targeted and timely response measures.
The implementation of this mitigation has been seen in various regions. One example is the Purworejo Regency Government, through the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD), which has prepared various anticipatory measures for the long dry season. The Head of the Purworejo Regency BPBD, Wasit Diono, explained that the BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency) prediction of a dry season lasting approximately 4.5 to 6 months is the basis for the local government to increase preparedness.
As a form of public protection, the Purworejo Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) has distributed clean water to Sumorejo Village, Bagelen District, and has prepared a capacity to supply approximately 7 million liters of water during the dry season. Four water tankers are also on standby for immediate use when the community needs clean water.
In addition to ensuring that the community’s water needs are met, the Purworejo Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) is strengthening coordination with the Purworejo Police, the 0708/Purworejo Military District Command (Kodim), Perhutani, the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI), the Public Order Agency (Satpol PP), the Agriculture Service, and various other agencies to increase patrols in fire-prone areas, establish alert posts, and strengthen the early warning system for potential forest and land fires.
Community participation is a crucial factor in reducing risks during the dry season. Residents are encouraged to conserve water, maintain good health during hot weather, and avoid activities that could trigger fires, such as burning trash unsupervised or carelessly discarding cigarette butts in dry areas.
El Niño mitigation is a collective effort to protect communities from the impacts of climate change. Collaboration between the central government, regional governments, the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI), security forces, the business community, and the community is a crucial foundation for maintaining food security, ensuring clean water availability, and preventing disasters that could disrupt people’s lives. By continuously strengthening preparedness from an early stage, Indonesia has a greater chance of facing El Niño more resiliently, thereby maintaining social stability and national development.
)* Policy Analyst