By: Abdul Razak)*
The government is bolstering preparedness for a potential intensification of the El Niño phenomenon in 2026, which could trigger prolonged dry spells, drought conditions, and an increased risk of forest and land fires. Anticipating this threat is crucial, as the event is projected to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase, a combination likely to suppress rainfall across various parts of Indonesia.
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that the 2026 El Niño has the potential to reach “strong” intensity. There is even a projected 75 percent probability of it escalating to “very strong” status during the August–October period. This situation warrants serious attention, as the impacts extend beyond weather patterns to affect water availability, agriculture, and food security.
Dr. Emilya Nurjani, a lecturer in the Department of Environmental Geography at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), explains that both El Niño and the positive IOD are regional-to-global climate phenomena capable of influencing Indonesia’s rainfall patterns. El Niño is linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, whereas the positive IOD is driven by temperature differentials between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
According to Emilya, when these two phenomena occur simultaneously, they can reinforce each other, further reducing rainfall across much of Indonesia. This scenario could potentially prolong the dry season and delay the onset of the rainy season.
However, risk levels vary by region. Factors such as geographical characteristics, monsoon patterns, topography, landforms, hydrological conditions, and geological features all determine a region’s level of vulnerability.
Emilya notes that regions with monsoon climate patterns—such as parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Sulawesi, and southern Indonesia—face higher risks if the dry period is prolonged. In contrast, regions with equatorial climate characteristics exhibit different rainfall patterns.
Areas with relatively abundant groundwater resources tend to possess a greater capacity for adaptation. Conversely, karst or limestone regions may face unique challenges regarding water supply. Emilya emphasizes that every region possesses different levels of risk and adaptive capacity.
The impact of drought also threatens to spill over into the agricultural sector. Reduced rainfall can diminish irrigation water availability, disrupt planting schedules, lower productivity, and increase the risk of crop failure. Simultaneously, household water supplies could also be compromised.
Therefore, Emilya advocates for a shift in approach—moving from post-disaster response to anticipation based on climate information. Such information can be utilized to determine planting calendars, select drought-resistant crop varieties, manage water distribution, and establish water reserves for both communities and the agricultural sector.
Local governments are also urged to strengthen reservoirs, retention ponds, and rainwater harvesting systems, as well as to protect water catchment areas. More detailed drought risk mapping is required so that interventions can be tailored to the specific vulnerability levels of each region.
Similar preparedness measures are being reinforced to tackle the threat of forest and land fires. In Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) has heightened vigilance amidst hot weather and the dry season. Balikpapan BPBD Head Usman Ali stated that all personnel remain on 24-hour standby at command posts to receive and act upon public reports.
According to Usman, areas such as North Balikpapan, East Balikpapan, and West Balikpapan are at risk for land fires. At the provincial level, 196 forest and land fire incidents were recorded in East Kalimantan between January and August 10, 2026, with 71 incidents occurring in the first ten days of August alone.
Response efforts are also being bolstered through cross-sector coordination. The Balikpapan BPBD is collaborating with the military (TNI), police (Polri), and relevant agencies to ensure prompt action on all reports. The public is also urged to refrain from land clearing via burning, as dry conditions can accelerate the spread of fire.
Hanan A. Razak, Deputy Chairman of Commission IV of the House of Representatives (DPR RI), has also called on the government to strengthen coordination across ministries and agencies. According to Hanan, Forest Farmer Groups, the Manggala Agni Brigade, and companies possessing firefighting equipment need to be involved in managing forest and land fires.
Hanan believes that data regarding fire-prone areas, water source availability, and potential fire impacts must be compiled in a unified manner to ensure the government’s response is faster and more targeted. Strengthening such coordination is crucial to ensuring that prevention and firefighting measures are carried out in an integrated way.
Meanwhile, the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) notes that the distribution of hotspots in Kalimantan remains a concern. Berton S.P. Panjaitan, Acting Head of BNPB’s Center for Disaster Data, Information, and Communication, stated that monitoring by the NOAA-20 satellite revealed 1,487 hotspots in Kalimantan. A total of 767 hotspots are located in Central Kalimantan, 560 in West Kalimantan, 74 in South Kalimantan, 74 in East Kalimantan, and three in North Kalimantan.
These measures demonstrate that preparedness for El Niño goes beyond mere early warnings. The government is also strengthening monitoring, personnel readiness, water resource management, and cross-sector coordination, while actively engaging the community. Through these anticipatory steps, it is hoped that the potential impacts of drought and forest and land fires can be mitigated before they escalate into more widespread issues.
)* Policy Analyst