By: Lukas Kyambo *
The votes for each 2019 Presidential Election were only known on the voting day, April 17 2019. However, the picture of vote acquisition has been known from the beginning of the number of survey institutions that conducted voting samples against the couple Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno.
After the first debate show, it has generated many public responses, both positive and negative. On the other hand, there are many assumptions if the results of the debate will affect the public’s choice of candidates.
The Populi Center survey institute released the results of the electability survey of two presidential and vice-presidential candidates who competed in the 2019 presidential election, Joko Widodo or Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo – Sandiaga Uno. The Populi Center survey showed pair number 01 Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin still superior to candidate number 02 Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. The survey showed that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability was 54.1 percent, while Prabowo-Sandi’s was 31.0 percent. As for those who did not answer 14.9 percent.
“These results are relatively the same as the survey findings in the previous months,” said researcher Populi Center Dimas Ramadhan when releasing the survey results in Jakarta on Thursday (02/07/2019).
Previously the survey was held in December 2018. The survey showed that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability was 52 percent and Prabowo-Sandi was 30.7 percent. That is, there is no significant change in the electability of the two post-debate candidates in the first candidate for the 2019 Presidential Election held on 17 January. Elektabilitas Jokowi-Ma’ruf rose 2.1 percent, while Prabowo-Sandi 0.3 percent.
In terms of distribution of voters, Jokowi-Ma’ruf was chosen by 50 percent of millennials (voters under the age of 34). While the millennial generation that chose Prabowo-Sandi was only 38.1 percent. The remaining 14.9 percent said they did not know. Dimas Ramadhan said that voters over the age of 35 years or non-millennials, more voted for the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair with a percentage of 55.9 percent, while Prabowo-Sandi was 28.0 percent. This finding is indicative given the limited number of respondents.
While based on the religious category, the number of Jokowi-Ma’ruf voters with an Islamic background was 51.1 percent, Protestants 88.9 percent, Catholics 75.7 percent, Hindus 80 percent, and Buddhism 100 percent. While Prabowo-Sandi was chosen by Islamic voters by 32.6 percent, Protestants 6.9 percent, Catholics 18.9 percent, Hindus 0 percent, and Buddhism 0 percent.
From the category of Islamic Organizations, 72.1 voters from Muhammadiyah chose Jokowi-Ma’ruf, while 20.9 percent of them chose Prabowo-Sandi, and the remaining 7 percent did not answer. From the Nahdlatul Ulama circles, 56.1 percent chose Jokowi-Ma’ruf, 27.8 percent chose Prabowo-Sandi, and the remaining 16.1 did not answer.
Meanwhile from Persatuan Islam (Persis) who voted for Jokowi-Ma’ruf only 35.7 percent compared to those who chose Prabowo-Sandi as much as 64.3 percent. Likewise, respondents from the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) who 100 percent chose the Prabowo-Sandi pair. This finding is also indicative, given the limited number of respondents.
The electability of the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair did indeed excel in several post-debate surveys. In addition to Populi Center, other institutions that conducted the survey included the Denny JA Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI Denny JA), National Survey Media (Median), and Charta Politika. Of all the surveys conducted by the survey institutions, Pasalon 01 outperformed Paslon 02. However, it was hoped that the Paslon 01 camp would not be obscured and continue to carry out a clean and peaceful campaign in order to increase the electability of Paslon that it supported. Likewise with Paslon 02, to continue promoting political education to its supporters and sympathizers.
- The author is a Political Observer
