By: Yusuf Rinaldi )*
Global geopolitical tensions have once again become a major concern in recent weeks. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East involving several major countries has triggered a surge in global crude oil prices. Naturally, this situation has raised public concern in many countries, including Indonesia, considering that energy is a strategic commodity that directly affects economic stability and people’s purchasing power.
Amid these global dynamics, the government has delivered a reassuring signal. Subsidized fuel prices are confirmed to remain secure. This certainty is not merely a political response to public concern but is supported by careful fiscal calculations, the readiness of national energy reserves, and responsive coordination among ministries in addressing global developments.
Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa confirmed that the fuel subsidy budget in the State Budget (APBN) remains in a strong condition even though global oil prices have risen in recent days ahead of Eid al-Fitr. The current increase in oil prices has not been significant enough to affect the subsidy calculations in the state budget because fuel subsidy assumptions are based on the average oil price over a full year.
According to him, in the 2026 State Budget calculation, the assumed oil price is around US$70 per barrel. With this approach, the government still has sufficient fiscal space to absorb short-term price fluctuations.
Purbaya believes that a price surge lasting only a few days is not sufficient to alter national budget policy. The government still has the capacity to absorb such volatility without making hasty policy changes.
He also emphasized that the government will not rush to respond to every movement in global oil prices. Global oil prices are known to be highly volatile, so it takes time to determine a more stable trend before making fiscal policy decisions.
According to him, responses to changes in global commodity prices must be carried out cautiously because managing the state budget cannot be equated with the rapid movements of the stock market. Fiscal policy requires careful consideration to maintain overall economic stability.
Therefore, the government will continue to monitor oil price developments in the coming period to ensure a clearer trend before deciding on any policy adjustments.
In the energy sector, assurances of stability have also come from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia confirmed that subsidized fuel prices will not increase at least until Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri.
This assurance is particularly important for the public, as the Ramadan and Eid holiday period is usually accompanied by increased public mobility and higher national energy consumption. With this guarantee, people can carry out their religious activities and homecoming travel more calmly without worrying about rising energy prices.
Bahlil also explained that national fuel stock resilience is currently in a safe condition. He urged the public not to engage in panic buying or fuel hoarding because national energy supplies remain sufficient.
According to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, national fuel stocks currently stand at around 21 to 23 operational days. This figure is even above the minimum energy reserve standard required to maintain national distribution stability.
The spokesperson for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Dwi Anggia, explained that the reserve figure represents an operational estimate that is continuously updated every day through domestic production and imported supply from various countries. With this mechanism, fuel reserves will not be depleted after a certain period because the replenishment process continues consistently.
She emphasized that the public should not assume that fuel stocks will run out after 21 days because that figure merely represents the minimum operational standard. Every day, fuel supplies continue to increase as new shipments enter the national energy distribution system.
In addition, Indonesia’s energy supply structure is relatively more resilient to conflicts in the Middle East compared with some other countries. Indonesia does import crude oil from several regions, including the Middle East, but refined fuel supplies come from a combination of domestic production and imports from Southeast Asian countries.
This diversification of supply sources provides an additional layer of protection for national energy resilience, thereby minimizing the potential impact of global geopolitical disruptions.
Meanwhile, for non-subsidized fuel, the government continues to apply market price mechanisms in accordance with existing regulations. Adjustments to non-subsidized fuel prices are routine policies carried out by energy companies based on pricing formulas set in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources regulations.
From a national economic perspective, the decision to maintain subsidized fuel prices ahead of Eid has strategic significance. Energy is a crucial component in the distribution chain of goods and services. If fuel prices rise sharply, the effects could spread to higher logistics costs, inflation, and a decline in people’s purchasing power.
Therefore, maintaining stable energy prices can be understood as part of the government’s broader strategy to sustain economic growth momentum while protecting the public from external pressures arising from global dynamics.
*) The author is an Economic Observer.
