By: Sirajudin Ahmad *)
Indonesia is entering a crucial phase in its long journey toward national food self-sufficiency. The key drivers are a combination of factors that have for years been the agricultural sector’s biggest challenges: increased productivity, stock stability, policy efficiency, and the success of government interventions at the most crucial points in the production chain. The year 2025 marks a time when the multifaceted efforts of the central and regional governments will begin to show increasingly measurable results. For the first time since Indonesia’s independence, government rice stocks have remained at around 3.8 million tons, all of which comes from domestic farmers. This demonstrates that the government’s ambitious agenda of strengthening food sovereignty has moved from mere vision to tangible, publicly felt achievements.
The government’s optimism is evident in Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman’s statement that Indonesia is very close to achieving food self-sufficiency. Amran’s statement was not speculative, but rather based on technical data showing a surge in national rice production throughout 2025. Statistics Indonesia’s Area Sample Framework (Sampling Frame) estimates the potential for dry milled rice to reach more than 60 million tons, an increase of more than 13 percent compared to the previous year. This sharp increase occurred primarily during the early planting season, when key centers in Java, Sumatra, and several other regions reported productivity well above average. This technical information provides a strong basis for the government to conclude that Indonesia is moving from a long-term dependence on rice imports to a phase of production independence.
Regarding stock management, Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani assessed that the government’s reserves, approaching four million tons, are the most important foundation for the self-sufficiency declaration targeted for the end of 2025. He believes this capacity guarantees a stable supply for the public, while also emphasizing that President Prabowo Subianto’s policy to halt rice imports can be implemented without risking shortages. With such strong reserves, the government has sufficient room to maintain price stability through market operations, mitigate fluctuations due to seasonal changes, and strengthen distribution to areas most vulnerable to supply fluctuations. The ability to maintain stocks despite the ongoing food aid program demonstrates the effectiveness of government intervention in maintaining a balance between production, consumption, and market stability.
National rice production also shows a trend in line with the self-sufficiency target. The Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at the Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Pudji Ismartini, projects that rice production in 2025 will reach nearly 35 million tons, an increase of more than 13 percent from last year. This data makes it clear that the increase in stocks is not simply the result of aggressive absorption, but truly reflects upstream improvements. Determining factors such as improved irrigation, more targeted fertilizer distribution, the addition of agricultural tools and machinery, and the acceleration of new land clearing have been proven to have a direct impact on farmer productivity. This success demonstrates that government policy instruments are working simultaneously: strengthening the production side, minimizing potential leakage, and ensuring more efficient production costs for farmers.
While this achievement offers great hope, several observers caution that food self-sufficiency is not solely determined by high production figures. Price stability, smooth distribution, and food security in the 3T (frontier and remote) regions remain crucial factors in determining whether self-sufficiency is truly felt by the public. Furthermore, dependence on imports of certain agricultural raw materials and the potential for extreme climate disruptions remain structural challenges that require serious management. However, the government appears to understand that achieving self-sufficiency is not the end goal, but rather a starting point for strengthening long-term resilience. Therefore, strengthening food logistics, modernizing irrigation, and establishing regional food reserves are ongoing agenda items that continue to be emphasized in various coordination meetings.
The government has also demonstrated an understanding that high production will not yield optimal results without a sound trade system. Agricultural digitalization efforts, more transparent fertilizer subsidies, and the use of weather forecasting tools and cropping patterns are strategies to ensure consistent farmer productivity. Furthermore, collaboration between the central and regional governments is strengthening, particularly in mapping production centers that can serve as additional support when production declines in certain areas. Regions such as West Java, Central Java, East Java, Lampung, Aceh, and South Sumatra exemplify how strengthening agricultural infrastructure can significantly transform the structure of national production.
If this trend continues, Indonesia will not only reduce its dependence on imports but also become a stronger player in maintaining national food price stability. Furthermore, this success reassures us that transforming our food system toward self-sufficiency is not a utopian dream. The government has demonstrated that with targeted policies, targeted interventions, and progressive use of technology, Indonesia can transform historical dependency structures into a more solid foundation for food sovereignty.
*) Agricultural Observer/Advanced Village Farmer Activist