Australian Survey Institute Releases Prediction Results for 2019 Presidential Election

By: Ananda Rasti *

Ahead of the 2019 Presidential Election, not only domestic survey institutions are trying to predict the results of the Indonesian presidential election. It turned out that the survey institute from Australia, Roy Morgan also participated in predicting who would win the democratic contest. Roy Morgan predicts that Presidential Candidate 01 Joko – Widodo, who is paired with KH Ma’ruf Amin, will win the General Election (Election) on April 17, 2019. The results of a survey conducted in January said that Jokowi won 58% of the votes.

CEO Roy Morgan, Michele Levine, said the vote for Jokowi was 16% superior compared to Prabowo who won 42%. “The survey results show that Indonesian citizens will again choose Jokowi as President of the Republic of Indonesia. Support for Jokowi rose 5% compared to the 2014 election, while Prabowo dropped 5%, “he said from the site of resemi Roy Morgan.

Levine said that the great support for Jokowi was not surprising, because Indonesia was the second most advanced G20 member country after China. He added, the ability of the Indonesian government to deal with economic problems over the past five years was the reason for Jokowi’s re-election. Indonesia is the only representative of ASEAN countries who are members of the G20 forum. Judging from the successes or success stories of Indonesia in overcoming economic problems starting from overcoming the economic crisis in Asia in the late 1990s.

Basically, Indonesia’s role in the G20 is not only to keep domestic growth high and stable, but also to advance the interests of developing countries and maintain the creation of an inclusive and sustainable global economy, in addition to realizing balanced growth for developed and developing countries.

In addition, he also said, Joko Widodo received the strongest support in urban areas outside Jakarta, including Central Java, East Java, northern Sumatra and Sulawesi. “Jokowi also received a lot of support from women with 60% of women choosing Jokowi and 39% supporting Prabowo,” he said.

If examined further, Roy Morgan also identified the distribution of voters of the two candidate pairs in a number of major provinces. In his findings, mighty Jokowi in the provinces of Central Java and Yogyakarta with 74.5%, while Prabowo – Sandi is only 25.5%.

In addition to the province, the most striking Jokowi – Ma’ruf vote was also seen in the provinces of East Java and Bali with 73% and Prabowo – Sandiaga with 27%. Furthermore, in some parts of Sulawesi province, Jokowi also excelled with a vote of 69% compared to 31% against his rival.

Not only that, Jokowi – Ma’ruf also received strong support in North Sumatra province which was 62.5%, while Prabowo only gained around 37.5%. On Sulawesi Island, Jokowi received 69% and Prabowo – Sandiaga received 37.5%.

Then Jokowi – Ma’ruf also excelled in the Kalimantan province with a slight advantage over the challengers namely 54% and Prabowo – Sandi was only 46%. Meanwhile, candidate number 02 is superior only in the provinces of West Java and DKI Jakarta and South Sumatra.

“Prabowo’s support is concentrated in his native province, West Java and Jakarta. Prabowo leads 57% and Jokowi 43%. While South Sumatra, Prabowo 54.5% and Jokowi 45.5%, “he concluded.

Levine added that in this year’s election, Indonesia held the first presidential and presidential election for the first time. The Indonesian Work Coalition (KIK) which supports Jokowi will also gain more votes, namely 52.3%, compared to the Indonesia Adil Makmur (KIAM) coalition that supports Prabowo and won 40.5%

This survey was held in January 2019 involving 1,039 voters. The institute also conducts face-to-face interviews in 17 provinces to support the balance of the survey. However, Roy Morgan did not include sampling techniques, margin of error and the confidence level of the survey.

Meanwhile, Spokesman for TKN Jokowi – Ma’ruf, Ace Hasan Syadzily said his side did not want to be complacent with the results of Roy Morgan’s survey.

“Frankly we are targeting 70%, the number in Morgan is 59% so there are still 12% that we have to boost and of course it is very possible, why? Because the undecided voters still exist, “Ace said.

Ace did not face difficulties in increasing Jokowi’s electability in areas with thin distances with Prabowo such as West Java, DKI and Banten. One of the problems is hoaxes. The results of this research can certainly be a whip of optimism for the candidate pair candidate number 01, at least the research can become data for the National Campaign Team to formulate / implement various strategies to win the contest for democracy.

In the survey at least illustrate how broad the voter knows the candidate. Information about opinions, aspirations and hopes of citizens is also essential for the political career of prospective leaders.

This voter survey can certainly be the first step, the teams successfully take the right actions, which are supported by the public. Surveys are a valuable source of information to find out what the public wants. With the right data, a good campaign can be designed later.

* The author is an observer of social and political problems