By: Ahmad Zaki )*
The death of ISIS frontman, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was considered not to weaken his organization. In fact, it is a vigilance alarm for the world community.
The movement of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group has actually long been known by the public. Although based in Syria, but its members are scattered in almost all parts of the world. News of the death of the leader of the largest terrorist organization in Syria, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi shocked the world public. This hardline frontman was felt after blowing himself up when he refused to surrender amid the US military invasion. However, this is not a sign of the destruction of the militant groups. Instead it is a sign of alert the world community, including in Indonesia.
One of the predictions of a potential counterattack was expressed by a spokesman for the State Intelligence Agency (BIN), Wawan Hari Purwanto. He said that in a counter-terrorism effort like a war, there would usually be a counterattack. The same thing was stated by the Head of Public Information at the National Police Headquarters Public Relations Division, Asep Adi Saputra. According to him, the death of Baghdadi was a concern in order to increase awareness of the Indonesian National Police and the police’s anti-terrorism special force, Detachment 88. The link is to keep making law enforcement efforts. In addition, he added that the entire ISIS network in Indonesia is now under monitoring.
According to Jenna Jordan, a professor from Georgia Institute of Technology, the death of the leader of a terrorist group did not directly impact the group’s destruction. Jenna explained that there are two factors which influence this. The first factor is; Bureaucracy, which is generally a terrorist group, has a bureaucratic structure with a complete and complex structure.
It is this clarity of structure, regulation, and routine that makes certain terrorist groups able to survive and will quickly replace their lost leadership structure.
The second factor is public support for this group. Support is considered quite crucial because this community assistance will later facilitate terrorist groups to recruit, raise funds, and even help him hide from government. In addition, this patronage helped facilitate militant groups to launch a re-organization when attacked.
The same thing was also expressed by Max Abrahams and Philip B.K. Potter. In his article titled Explaining Terrorism: Leadership Deficits and Militant Group Tactics, both expressed the opinion that leadership deficits or emptiness did not directly influence this group to stop the attack. In fact, this condition can make terrorist groups increase resistance to civil society.
These phenomena do not only apply in other countries. Because, domestic terrorist groups in the archipelago in fact still exist even though the leader was killed or captured by security forces. For example, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), a group that works with Al-Qaeda and is responsible for major bomb attacks in areas such as the 2002 and 2005 Bali Bombings, as well as the Australian Embassy Bombing in 2004.
The group formed in 1993 is still active even though its founder and leader, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir and Para Wijayanto, have languished in jail. Even with high-ranking officials such as Noordin M. Top and Dr. Azhari was killed in a police raid, the militant organization is still moving. Similar to JAD (Jamaah Ansharut Daulah), this JI cuilan group then cooperates with the ISIS group.
It was this group that was stated to be behind the bomb attack incidents such as in Sarinah, Kampung Melayu, and Surabaya, which remained stubborn even though last year the leader, Aman Abdurrahman alias Oman Rochman had been sentenced to death. In this regard is the case of the stabbing of the former Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs (Menko Polhukam) Wiranto. What is interesting is the ability of terrorist groups in the archipelago to continue to pitch after their leadership is gone, which not only comes from the ability of the terrorist group itself, but also from the patronage of outsiders including the government.
The question of Baghdadi’s death and the diminished influence of ISIS is likely to have an impact on the rise of terrorist groups in Indonesia. This was stated by intelligence observer Stanislaus Riyanta who saw that the downfall of ISIS and JAD could be exploited by JI to exist again.
It is not only the Indonesian state that must prepare for the impact of Baghdadi’s death. But also other countries in the Southeast Asian region, including Malaysia and the Philippines. They see the possibility of a backlash by the ISIS Pro.
Therefore the Indonesian government appealed to all elements of society to continue to be aware of the possibility of this. Given the militant group’s movement is considered quite active in conducting all invasions.
)* The author is an observer of security politics