By: Gani Permata *
The latest Indonesian Survey Survey (LSI) Denny JA research institute survey shows that the electability of Jokow-Ma’ruf Amin is superior to Prabowo-Sandi at the level of Muslim voters. The survey results were obtained through research entitled “Shifting Religious Sentiment After Six Months of Campaign”. LSI conducted research for the past six months, starting from August 2018 to February 2019.
From the survey results, the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin pair received support as much as 58.7 percent, while the Prabowo-Sandi pair was 30.9 percent. Meanwhile, voters who declared secret / did not decide / did not know / did not answer 9.9 percent.
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin’s candidate presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate excelled among the majority of Pancasila-oriented moderate Muslim voters, such as Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). 64.1 percent of NU is confirmed to support Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin if they see a survey conducted from February 18-25 2019. While Prabowo-Sandi is superior in conservative Muslim voters oriented towards the Middle East, generally from the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). FPI voters are fairly solid against Prabowo-Sandi with 100 percent support in February 2019.
For a period of six months, support for Prabowo-Sandi was superior to the Muslim voter segment whose political orientation was that Indonesia should be like the Middle East or Arab, which amounted to 54.1 percent. This value shows an increase compared to the previous survey in August 2018 which wanted Indonesia to be like Arab in the range of 39.6 percent. While the voters who viewed Indonesia as a Pancasila must be 33.4 percent.
In contrast to the acquisition of the Prabowo-Sandi survey, support for Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin’s candidate pair actually showed a decline in the segment that considered Indonesia to be like the Middle East. For Muslim voters who consider Indonesia to be typical of the Pancasila, support for Paslon number 01 is stable at 57.2 percent.
Not only that, in the perception of Islam and politics, support for Prabowo-Sandi increased especially in Muslim voters who considered religion to be separate from politics. Meanwhile, for Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin’s support, especially in Muslim voters who judge religion and politics as a whole, they cannot be separated. However, for a political orientation that considers Indonesia to be like the West, Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin is superior, namely 58.3 percent while Prabowo-Sandi is 33.3 percent.
Responding to the LSI survey results, Spokesman for National Winning (BPN) Prabowo-Sandi, Andre Rosiade, said that survey institutions that simultaneously won ak Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin only wanted to build a narrative. According to him, this is the same as when the survey institute was busy showing the electability superiority of Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (BTP) aka Ahok in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Pilgub.
While the National Campaign Team (TKN) of Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin welcomed the various surveys that always favored Paslon serial number 01. However, the incumbents claimed not to be complacent with the results of the survey. The results of this survey will be used as an encouragement to work more optimally in winning the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin pair in the 2019 Presidential Election title, which is only counting days.
According to the LSI survey, the advantages gained by Jokowi-Ma’ruf for Prabowo-Sandi not only occur in February 2019, but since August 2018. Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin’s electability dynamics have always been stable above 20 percent against Prabowo-Sandi . Jokowi always excels because it offers optimism based on the results of his work during the first period. So, if the presidential election is held at this time, then Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin will be the pair of president and vice president 2019-2024.
* The author is a student at the University of Persada Indonesia