By: Rian Maulana *
The oblique news about Jokowi who called him anti-ulama and anti-Islam did not succeed in overthrowing Jokowi’s electability from Muslim voters in Indonesia. In almost every region, the declaration of the clerics and santri is boisterous in voicing Jokowi. The declaration and support is certainly a manifestation of the attitude of the activists of the Islamic movement.
The Indonesian Concept Survey Institute (Konsepsindo) stated that the majority of Islamic organizations have been solid in providing support to the Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin candidate in the 2019 Presidential Election. From the survey results, 52.2 percent of the Nahdlatul Ulama elected Jokowi – Maufuf. While 38.8 percent chose the Prabowo – Sandiaga candidate pair.
Veri Muhlis, Director of Konsepsindo, said that the vote was taken by 40.2 percent of the total 1,200 respondents surveyed. The amount of 40.2 percent was the result of respondents who felt they were part of a member or merely sympathizers of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). Meanwhile in Muhammadiyah circles, Jokowi – Maufuf is still superior with the acquisition of 46.2 percent while Prabowo – Sandiaga gets 31.3 percent of the total respondents who feel themselves to be part of a member or merely sympathizers of Muhammadiyah.
LIPI researcher Syamsudi Haris acknowledged that this was a quite interesting phenomenon. This is because so far, he has assumed that the choice of Muhammadiyah residents tends to Prabowo – Sandiaga. However, the results of the survey showed that it turned out that Muhammadiyah citizens preferred Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin.
In addition, the Denny JA LSI Survey also noted that Muslim electoral support (base 87.8 percent of respondents) towards the presidential / vice presidential candidate pair with number 01 Jokowi – Ma’ruf in February 2019 increased to 55.7 percent from the previous month which was only 49 , 5 percent. In general, within 7 months support from Muslim voters to pair number 01 also increased.
LSI Senior Researcher Denny JA Ardian Sopa said, that Muslim voters who support Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin, the majority are affiliated with NU who are moderate Muslims. The Muslim voters are Prabowo – Sandiaga who are mostly affiliated with the conservative alumni (PA) 212 and FPI associations.
Moderate Muslims mean Muslim voters who want Indonesia to remain based on Pancasila, not like the Middle East. Ardian Sopa also added that the majority of Muslims in Indonesia stated that Indonesia must be typical of the Pancasila. While conservative Muslims are Muslim groups who want Indonesia like the Middle East. This is what according to Ardian wants Indonesia to be like the Middle East or Arab world.
Indonesian conservative Muslim groups have a fairly strict view of the two candidates. For conservatives, defeating Jokowi-Ma’ruf and establishing a victory for Prabowo – Sandiaga is an Islamic obligation. They believe that choosing Prabowo is a spiritual and religious duty.
This certainly received a positive response from the Secretary of the Jokowi National Campaign Team (TKN) – Ma’ruf Amin, Hasto Kristiyanto. The party welcomed the results of a survey launched by LSI Denny JA which showed an increase in the electability of the pair carried by Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin. It was optimistic that it could be above 70 percent.
“What will change is the debate, the Swing voters and the undecided voters after the debate led to Jokowi. In some survey results, the superiority of Jokowi – Ma’ruf Amin against Prabowo – Sandiaga is almost always above 20 percent, “Hasto said.
Muslim conservatism has become increasingly evident in Indonesia after the emergence of the 212. Movement These groups have not only become a socio-religious driving force, but also political forces that have changed the political landscape of Indonesia. The wave of Islamic conservatism in Indonesia will not be a one-time phenomenon, this has a considerable impact on the narrative of Indonesian Muslims and their political behavior during the ongoing presidential election.
The success of conservatism in Indonesia can be seen in the DKI Jakarta pilgub case, where at that time Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) had to lie behind bars. This was greatly influenced by the movement 212 which was closely related to the interests of the political elite. However, the movement has not yet had an impact on the results of leading survey institutions that consistently predict candidate number 01 Jokowi-Ma’ruf is superior to Prabowo’s challenger candidate pair, Sandiaga with a considerable difference.
- The author is an alumni of Andalas University
