By: Fahmi Alfarizi )*
Global geopolitical tensions have once again drawn international attention as conflict in the Middle East triggers a surge in international crude oil prices. The situation not only affects regional stability but also raises concerns about energy security in many countries. History has shown that every escalation of conflict in major energy-producing regions almost always leads to volatility in global oil prices. Under such circumstances, many countries face serious pressure on their fiscal stability and the purchasing power of their citizens. However, amid these global dynamics, Indonesia has demonstrated relatively strong resilience in maintaining the stability of domestic energy prices.
Amid these global developments, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, has ensured that national energy availability remains at a safe level. Reserves of both fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are considered sufficient to meet public demand for the foreseeable future. The government continues to strengthen the national energy distribution system to ensure that supplies remain evenly distributed across regions. Stable energy logistics have become a key factor in maintaining public confidence in the government’s ability to manage this strategic sector. When distribution flows smoothly and stocks are secure, the potential for domestic price fluctuations can be minimized.
In addition to ensuring stable supply, the government has also reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining controlled prices for subsidized fuel. The stability of subsidized fuel prices is an important component in safeguarding the purchasing power of the population. Energy plays a strategic role in everyday economic activities, from transportation to production sectors. If fuel prices rise sharply, the impact will spread across various components of living costs. Therefore, maintaining stable subsidized fuel prices serves as a crucial instrument in controlling inflation and preserving national economic balance.
Meanwhile, market mechanisms continue to apply to non-subsidized fuel as part of a more efficient energy governance system. This approach provides flexibility for price adjustments in line with global market dynamics without placing excessive pressure on the state budget. Such differentiated policy reflects a balance between social protection and fiscal discipline. Energy subsidies are therefore directed primarily toward those who need them the most. With proper management, this policy can maintain social stability while strengthening the country’s fiscal resilience.
Previously, President Prabowo Subianto emphasized that national fuel resilience remains secure despite the sharp rise in global oil prices. According to him, the government has prepared various strategic measures to ensure energy supply remains stable and does not disrupt national economic stability. The global oil price surge, which has exceeded the 2026 state budget assumption of 70 dollars per barrel, indeed presents a challenge for many countries. However, the government views this situation as momentum to accelerate the transformation of Indonesia’s national energy sector. The major agenda toward energy self-sufficiency has once again been reaffirmed as a long-term foundation to address global uncertainty.
Within this framework, the government is placing strong emphasis on strengthening the national energy mix through the development of biofuels. President Prabowo Subianto has encouraged the acceleration of biodiesel implementation with higher blending levels, including the B50 program which combines up to 50 percent bio-based fuel. In addition to biodiesel, the government is also preparing the development of bioethanol-based fuel through the E20 program. These policies are aimed not only at reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels but also at strengthening the utilization of domestic energy resources. Such energy transformation is also part of the broader strategy toward achieving national energy independence.
Subsidized fuel prices will not increase despite the surge in global oil prices triggered by conflict in the Middle East. This affirmation reflects the government’s confidence in the strength of Indonesia’s economic fundamentals. Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability is considered sufficiently solid to withstand external pressures. In an increasingly uncertain global environment, confidence in domestic economic strength becomes an essential factor in maintaining public optimism.
The public therefore does not need to worry about the impact of international conflicts on the national economy. Indonesia’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by stable domestic consumption and a production sector that continues to grow. The government continues to implement various monitoring measures to ensure that energy policies operate as intended, while strengthening the governance of energy distribution as part of efforts to maintain domestic market stability.
Global geopolitical turbulence triggered by the Middle East conflict has become a test of energy resilience for many nations. Surging world oil prices can create economic pressure if not anticipated with appropriate policies. Indonesia has demonstrated a comprehensive approach through strengthening energy reserves, maintaining distribution stability, and accelerating the transition toward energy independence. The commitment to keeping subsidized fuel prices under control reflects the government’s support for economic stability and public welfare. With strong economic fundamentals and an increasingly clear direction in energy policy, Indonesia is able to face a turbulent world without losing stability at home.
*) The author is an Analyst of National Energy Policy.
