By: Laylatul Qadry *)
Every year, the movement of tens of millions of people leading up to the holidays is a remarkable economic phenomenon. However, a question we rarely ask is, how much of the benefit of this increased cash flow is actually felt by small businesses in the regions? And is this seasonal economic surge enough to propel MSMEs to the next level?
Sarman Simanjorang, Deputy Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) for Regional Autonomy, projects that money turnover during the 2026 homecoming travel period will reach Rp 161.88 trillion, supported by 143.9 million travelers, or approximately 50.6 percent of Indonesia’s total population. This figure is not merely substantial; it represents one of the largest natural annual domestic consumption stimuli.
Sarman also emphasized that the success of this momentum depends heavily on government guarantees of fuel and gas availability, ensuring that people feel confident spending their money in their respective regions. This is crucial: consumer trust is the primary fuel for a thriving economy.
There’s a pattern that repeats itself every year. Money circulation is massive, but its distribution isn’t always even. Most of the money circulates within the Java corridor—Central Java, East Java, and West Java—while regions outside Java often receive only a smaller share.
Moreover, there’s a fundamental question that remains unanswered: are the MSMEs enjoying this seasonal surge in revenue truly growing? Or are they simply experiencing a “one-time harvest” and then returning to their original state? Herein lies a structural problem that we’ve long known about, but haven’t fully addressed.
Special Staff to the Vice President, Tina Talisa, voiced concerns felt by many regarding the direction of MSME development in Indonesia. She urged the government to immediately formulate clear and measurable criteria for what constitutes “upgraded” MSMEs. Should the indicators be an increase in the workforce, increased business assets, or increased turnover, or more fundamental aspects such as improving financial literacy among business owners? This question is not merely a matter of discourse, but rather a form of encouragement to provide a more concrete and measurable basis for current policies.
For years, the term “upgrade” has been a frequent catchphrase appearing in various government planning documents and programs. However, in practice, the term has not been fully operationalized into indicators that can be systematically evaluated. As a result, many MSME empowerment programs operate without clear benchmarks, making their impact difficult to objectively measure. This situation also has implications for budget use that cannot be fully substantively accounted for, due to the lack of parameters that can indicate the program’s success.
In this context, the Vice President’s Secretariat has taken concrete steps by holding the Collaborative Dialogue forum. This forum serves as a strategic platform to bring together various stakeholders, from government and the business world to civil society, to build synergy to strengthen the MSME ecosystem. Furthermore, the forum also emphasized the importance of promoting women’s economic empowerment as an integral part of strengthening the people’s economy.
One of the key findings emerging from the forum was the still low proportion of female entrepreneurs in Indonesia, which has only reached around 37 percent. Yet, in reality, women play a very significant role in driving the MSME sector, from home-based culinary businesses and handicrafts to trading activities in traditional markets. This low figure indicates a persistent gap that needs to be addressed immediately through more inclusive and supportive policies.
Furthermore, another crucial challenge is the low level of business formalization, particularly among women micro-entrepreneurs. The lack of a Business Identification Number (NIB) presents a significant barrier to their access to essential services such as financing, training, and market expansion. Without adequate legal documentation, women’s MSMEs tend to remain stuck in a stagnant business environment and struggle to grow.
Amidst the momentum of increasing public consumption, which is expected to reach 10–15 percent in the first quarter of 2026, the opportunity to boost MSME growth is truly significant. However, this opportunity will not yield optimal impact without the support of a strong and sustainable policy infrastructure. Therefore, at least three strategic steps need to be implemented immediately.
First, standardizing “upgrade” indicators that can be used as a reference across ministries and agencies, so that each program has a clear and measurable direction. Second, strengthening ongoing mentoring programs, not just temporary or momentum-based ones. Third, a clear focus on women entrepreneurs as the backbone of the people’s economy.
Money circulation is not just a statistic, but a reflection of the immense economic potential of the Indonesian people. The shared responsibility of the government, academics, and business players is to ensure that this potential is not merely a seasonal phenomenon but is able to grow sustainably, becoming a truly robust economic force in the future.
*) Observer of MSMEs and domestic economic policies.
