By: Dirandra Falguni
Indonesia’s trade balance once again posted an impressive performance in March 2025. According to data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the trade surplus reached USD 4.33 billion, a significant increase from the previous month’s USD 3.12 billion. This achievement marks the 59th consecutive monthly surplus since May 2020, signaling the strength and competitiveness of Indonesia’s exports amidst uncertain global dynamics.
BPS Chief Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti stated that on a monthly basis, the surplus rose by USD 1.23 billion, making March 2025 the 59th straight month of surplus since May 2020. Cumulatively, the trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 10.92 billion up to March 2025. Compared to the same period in 2024 (January–March), this marks an increase of USD 3.51 billion. The surplus was primarily supported by a non-oil and gas (non-oil & gas) surplus of USD 15.76 billion, while the oil and gas sector posted a deficit of USD 1.67 billion, largely due to imports of refined and crude oil.
This performance exceeded market expectations. A consensus of 10 institutions had projected the surplus would only reach USD 2.63 billion. The actual figure highlights the solid foundation of Indonesia’s economy, particularly in its external sector.
March’s trade balance surplus was supported by exports totaling USD 23.25 billion, a sharp increase driven by contributions from oil and gas exports. Imports, meanwhile, stood at USD 18.92 billion, rising only slightly by 0.38% compared to the previous month. The balance between growing exports and stable imports created room for a larger surplus and indicated that import demand has not surged significantly.
In total, Indonesia’s trade balance from January to March 2025 recorded a surplus of USD 10.92 billion, far higher than the USD 7.41 billion surplus in the same period last year. This was driven by non-oil & gas exports of USD 15.76 billion, although it had to be offset by the deficit in the oil and gas sector.
One of the key drivers behind the surplus is the positive trade relationship with the United States (US). BPS recorded that Indonesia posted a trade surplus with the US of USD 4.32 billion during January–March 2025, an increase from USD 3.61 billion in the same period the previous year.
The surplus with the US was dominated by non-oil & gas commodities such as electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85), apparel and accessories (HS 61 and 62), footwear (HS 64), and animal/vegetable fats and oils (HS 15). On the import side, Indonesia brought in mechanical machinery (HS 84), oil-bearing seeds and fruits (HS 12), and medical instruments (HS 90) from the US.
Although Indonesia’s oil and gas trade balance with the US remains in deficit at USD 0.80 billion in the first quarter of 2025, the overall trade surplus trend remains strong. In fact, from 2015 through March 2025, Indonesia’s total trade surplus with the US has reached USD 115.78 billion.
The improved trade performance has also had a direct impact on the exchange rate of the rupiah. On Monday (April 21, 2025), the rupiah closed up 0.12% at IDR 16,800 per US dollar. This appreciation occurred alongside a weakening of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which dropped 1.25% to 98.13 from a previous 99.37.
The strengthening of the rupiah reflects market confidence in Indonesia’s economy. A trade surplus means the country earns more foreign exchange reserves, which in turn strengthens the rupiah’s fundamentals and gives Bank Indonesia greater leeway to maintain national monetary stability.
Ariston Tjendra, President Director of PT Doo Financial Futures, noted that the rupiah’s appreciation was also influenced by negative market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s call for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Trump’s intervention in Fed policy sparked concerns over the central bank’s independence, putting pressure on the US dollar.
State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi stated that Indonesia’s strong trade performance is the result of the government’s continuous efforts to maintain economic stability amid global turmoil. Cross-ministerial coordination remains active in responding to tariff policy impacts from the US and other countries.
The government’s trade diplomacy strategy, led by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto and involving the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry, and Ministry of Trade, continues to be refined. The aim is not only to strengthen existing trade relationships with key partners such as the US, but also to open new markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Airlangga highlighted that Indonesia is among the first countries accepted into tariff negotiations with the US government, showing that Indonesia’s economic diplomacy is beginning to bear tangible results. These steps are expected to help maintain future trade surpluses despite ongoing global geopolitical tensions.
A sustained trade surplus is a strong indicator that Indonesia’s economy is on a stable and resilient path. Amid global challenges such as trade tensions, currency pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties, Indonesia has continued to post surpluses and strengthen its foreign exchange reserves.
This success is not only the result of rising exports but also of intensive cross-sector collaboration and responsiveness to global shifts. Challenges remain, especially in the oil and gas sector and industrial reform, but the consistent surplus trend offers room for optimism about Indonesia’s economic future.
With an adaptive trade strategy, stronger non-oil & gas exports, and well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, Indonesia has great potential to maintain its economic resilience amid the increasingly complex tides of globalization and protectionism. Meanwhile, the Garuda currency continues to soar as the greenback keeps losing ground day by day.
The author is a contributor to Beritakapuas.com
