Jakarta – Head of the State Intelligence Agency General Police ( Ret .) Budi Gunawan said “Winter is Coming ” in 2023. This means that in intelligence terms 2023 will be a year full of uncertainty and darkness. Of course, these situations and conditions are based on future predictions from world intelligence. From an analysis of the economic situation in 2023, there will be difficulties, so anticipation is necessary.
This explanation was conveyed by the Head of the State Intelligence Agency, Gen. Police ( Purn .) Budi Gunawan, at the National Coordination Meeting of Regional Heads and the Indonesian Regional Leadership Communication Forum in Sentul City, Bogor Regency, West Java Province, Tuesday (17/1/2023).
Budi Gunawan said that he also described that in 2023 he would be haunted by the threat of recession and inflation. The impact will be very striking and influential up to the areas in the city to the villages.
Based on intelligence foresight , analysis of BIN’s big data and world intelligence counterparts , it illustrates that there are several potential global threats and challenges in 2023 that need to be of concern to all parties,” said the head of BIN.
The war between Russia and Ukraine is predicted to continue for a long time, compounded by the emergence of the potential use of nuclear weapons on a limited scale. However, this is very worrying for the world. The war between the two countries automatically disrupts the world’s energy and food supplies.
In addition, according to Budi Gunawan, the geopolitical conflict situation between China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait will also be of increasing concern because it will affect world logistics routes.
As a result, many countries are forced to apply narrow nationalism or protectionism measures in order to secure and meet their respective domestic needs,” said the Head of BIN.
In addition, infrastructure in many European countries has begun to be neglected due to a shortage of funds due to inflation. Like Italy, which is experiencing an electricity crisis and food shortages, he said.
The head of BIN explained that several African countries depended heavily on 90% of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, they are currently threatened with hunger and extreme poverty.
Meanwhile, for Indonesia there is enormous homework. In early 2023, Indonesia will become a net importer of food commodities, especially wheat, soybeans, rice, meat and garlic, said the Head of BIN.
“Therefore, the role of local governments is very much needed in order to be able to overcome the potential for a food crisis that has hit many countries in the world, including Indonesia,” said the Professor of Intelligence.
Then apart from that, with the existence of a livelihood crisis and increasing layoffs as well as the global unemployment rate which is exacerbated by state and corporate budget financing which is becoming more complex with the inclusion of the concept of a green economy or environmentally friendly economy, concluded Budi Gunawan.
Head of BIN Head of State Intelligence Agency General Police ( Purn .) Budi Gunawan said most local governments and local industries were not familiar with and were not ready for green economy schemes and business models.
“If we mismanage it, it will have the potential to increase the debt burden and be vulnerable to technological changes,” said Budi Gunawan.
Meanwhile, according to him, the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar was due to high global inflation, causing a high import burden which had an impact on the national industry, increased unemployment and decreased people’s purchasing power.
Budi Gunawan said that Indonesia’s economic growth in 2023 is estimated to be only in the range of 4.7% -5.3%. Indonesia is also predicted not to be hampered by a recession.
results of world intelligence foresight illustrate that there will be regional and inter-community disparities in an area that are increasingly high. Therefore, it has the potential to reduce growth in the region by approximately 1.2%, he said.
