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Anticipating the Increase in New Covid-19 Cases

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By: Dodik Prasetyo ) *

A potential spike in Covid-19 is certain to occur after the Eid al- Fitr holiday . The reason is, many people still force homecoming even though the Government strictly prohibits activities to return home. Now every health facility is expected to be prepared to anticipate an increase in new Covid-19 cases.

After Eid, it seems that the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 has increased. The Ministry of Health (Kemenkes) noted that in the last three days the bed occupancy rate (BOR) at Covid-19 Hospitals in all provinces in Indonesia began to increase.

Azhar Jaya as Secretary of the Directorate General of Ministry of Health services also noted that the average BOR of Covid-19 hospitals in four provinces was above 50%. This number is of course close to the safe threshold for BOR in hospitals set by the World Health Organization (WHO), which is 60%.

              He detailed, four provinces with BOR isolation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Covid-19 hospitals above 50 percent were North Sumatra and West Kalimantan with BOR reaching 58%. Then West Sumatra and Riau with the use of beds as much as 53%.

              However, he also emphasized that this week the yellow hospital zone, or hospitals with occupancy above 60-80 percent, began to appear .

              Under these conditions, Azhar asked all Covid-19 hospitals in Indonesia to be able to increase the capacity of hospital rooms for patients exposed to the corona virus, by changing functions, aka bed conversions in order to strengthen anticipatory efforts for a spike in Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. .

              He also said, if there is a hospital that is in the red zone or BOR above 80%, the hospital must convert at least 40% of inpatient beds for Covid-19 patients, and convert at least 25% of the ICU from the inpatient room. .             

              Furthermore, for the yellow zone or BOR above 60% -80%, he requested that the hospital convert at least 30 percent of inpatient beds for Covid-19 patients, and convert at least 15% of the ICU from the inpatient room.

              Meanwhile, for the green zone or BOR below 60%, the hospital must convert a minimum of 20 percent of inpatient beds for Covid-19 patients, and convert a minimum of 10% of the ICU from the inpatient room.             

              On a different occasion, the Covid-19 Handling Task Force said that in the last six days, there had been an increase in positive cases of Covid-19. Apart from the addition of daily cases, active cases also experienced a spike in the last week.

              If you look at the daily data released by the Covid-19 Task Force, the weekly cumulative Covid-19 cases have increased. In the period 9-15 May, for example, the cumulative number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia has reached 26,908 cases. Then in the last week, May 16-22, it rose to 33,234 cases.

              Meanwhile, Deputy Health Minister Dante Saksono Harbuwono predicts an increase in positive cases of Covid-19 in the near future. This happened as a result of the mobility of the population during the Eid 1442 Hijriah holiday which was exacerbated by the mutation of the corona virus.

              Especially with the post-Eid population mobility that continues to date and has had an impact on the increase in the number of daily positive cases which has exceeded 5,000 over the last 4 days.

              To reduce cases of the spread of covid-19, Dante invited all elements of the nation to remain disciplined in implementing health protocols, including vaccinations which will continue to be promoted after Eid.

              On a different occasion, the coordinator of the Covid-19 Emergency Hospital for athletes, Major General Dr. Duty Ratmono, reminded the people of Jakarta not to be careless in implementing health protocols. This is because there is an increasing trend in the number of pa cient at RSDC Wisma Atlet Kemayoran, Central Jakarta.

              On May 18, only 900 patients were treated at Wisma Atlet Hospital. However, the number of patients continues to increase every day because more patients are admitted than patients who are discharged. As of Monday today , a total of 1,305 patients are being treated.

              This increase in cases was apparently contributed by the homecoming cluster who had just returned to Jakarta. In addition, this figure was also contributed by the family cluster.

              If the health protocol is not applied in a disciplined manner, it could be that the Wisma Atlet Hospital will become full, adding to the length of the Covid-19 pandemic period in Indonesia. So that awareness and discipline of health protocols must be encouraged.

) * The author is a contributor to the Indonesian Strategic Information Studies Institute (LSISI)

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