By: Moch Irfandi)*
Indonesia’s economy in 2016 is quite favorable in the midst of global uncertainty. Various macro indicators such as gross domestic product to grow considerably accelerated compared to last year, with the consumer price index that can be managed under 3.5 percent. The economic recovery is also inseparable from the improvement in prices of some commodities such as coal and nickel. No wonder that show improvement in economic fundamentals plus the improvement in commodity prices that is able to boost the rupiah.
Tax amnesty program or a tax amnesty also gave positive market sentiment stepped on the second half. Although, there are several external factors that restrain the strengthening of the rupiah throughout 2016, including the release of the United Kingdom from the European Union, as well as the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
Referring to Bloomberg data, the exchange rate on January 1 at the level of 13 830, after the end of 2015 closed at 13 788. On January 20 in the level of 13 964. Rupiah had touched its highest level on March 10 at 13 052. Then, from mid-March to mid-May the exchange rate fluctuates limited below the level of 13 350.
On May 16, the rupiah was at 13 310. But just four days, the exchange rate dropped touched 13,608 on 20 May. Some analysts said, profit-taking suppress the rupiah exchange rate at that time. Thus, at the end of May the currency eagle perched at the level of 13 648.
Entering the month of June rupiah regained some strength, but there was a slight decrease in the mid-month, and in the third week. In this, the world is waiting for the results of the referendum United Kingdom. Responded to the results of the referendum which was won by the “exit”, on June 24, the exchange rate on the spot market at the level of 13 391 or depreciated 1.09 percent from the previous day’s trading at the level of 13 248.
Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus DW Martowardojo said at the time, the market responded to the results of the referendum because of the potential flight to quality, where funds are transferred to countries considered more stable, such as the United States and Japan.
Until September 30 rupiah has strengthened, which is the deadline for the first term tax amnesty program, the rupiah strengthened at the level of 13 042 strong.
Market confidence towards the success of RI tax amnesty program that prints a history of successfully encouraging the strengthening of the rupiah. Until the first term ended, the incoming ransom reached more than Rp 90 trillion.
However, according to Economist Samuel Lana Soelistianingsih Asset Management, a factor strengthening commodity prices more influential. After the euphoria of the success of the first term tax amnesty, the strengthening of the rupiah continues for a full month to reach 12 972 on October 29th. Lana also said that strengthening especially if we see visible once in September-October was due to commodity prices. Rising commodity prices helped the countries whose currencies tied to commodities, including the rupiah.
Since October 31 rupiah continued to experience pressure, until November 30 reached 13 555. US presidential elections are won by the candidate of the Republican Party, Donald Trump gives attenuation.
Lana said that the US dollar gained greater because of the issue of the Fed and Trump. According to his calculations, the rupiah exchange rate since the beginning of the year up to October 31 rose 5.67 percent. However, from November 1 to December 14, affected by the effects of Trump, the exchange rate experienced a 1.8 percent depreiasi.
The central bank can not remain silent, that by intervening in the foreign exchange market and the bond market. As a result, foreign exchange reserves was slightly eroded from 115 billion dollars in October, became the 111.5 billion dollars in November. But stepping in December, pushed the rupiah strengthened to the positive sentiment and per December 14 at level 13 294. From the beginning of the year until December 14 rupiah strengthened slightly to 3.8 percent. The new Rupiah experienced a slight weakening 0.68 percent after the announcement of raising the benchmark interest rate the US central bank, so that the position of December 15 was at 13 384.
This is the dynamics of the movement of the rupiah against the US dollar throughout the year 2016. Hopefully the tax amnesty program or a tax amnesty a success that continues to encourage the strengthening of the rupiah to a better direction. And can improve the economy of Indonesia.
