Bogor – Head of the State Intelligence Agency (BIN), General Police ( Ret .) Budi Gunawan explained the results of the analysis related to the world economic situation in 2023.
He explained that the results of analysis from world intelligence revealed that 2023 would be a dark and uncertain year.
” Foresight (foresight) from world intelligence describes that 2023 is a dark and full of uncertainty. The term intelligence is called winter is coming ,” he said.
Not only that, but according to him, this year the world will continue to be haunted by the threat of recession and inflation. In fact, all of them will have an impact on many sectors to remote villages.
“There are also those who describe that 2023 is a year that will be haunted by the threat of recession and inflation. The impact will affect areas that hit and are felt by the household economy in corners of cities, districts and remote villages,” he continued. .
Furthermore, General Pol ( Retired ) Budi Gunawan added that from the results of the analysis of world intelligence, there are several potential global threats in 2023 that must be considered.
According to him, the first potential threat is due to the prediction that geopolitical conflicts in Russia and Ukraine will continue for a long time and this will be exacerbated by the emergence of other potential disturbances such as the use of nuclear weapons.
It is clear that the Head of BIN considers that the conflict between the two countries has seriously disrupted the supply of energy and food in the world.
Not to mention, General Pol ( Retired ) Budi Gunawan added that conditions in 2011 were also exacerbated by conflicts in China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait which would affect world logistics routes.
As a result of the many hampered world supplies, according to him, countries in the world have finally implemented narrow nationalism and protectionism to safeguard various needs for their respective countries.
“As a result, many countries are forced to apply narrow nationalism or protectionism measures in order to secure and meet their respective domestic needs,” said KaBIN Budi Gunawan.
Furthermore, another potential threat to the world comes from the many abandoned infrastructures in European countries as a result of a lack of funds due to inflation.
He gave the example that Italy is currently experiencing a crisis of electricity and food shortages, just like Africa because it depends on imports of wheat from Russia and Ukraine which are in conflict, so they are threatened with starvation.
“Meanwhile, some African countries are very dependent on 90% of imports of wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, they are currently threatened with extreme hunger and poverty,” he said.
Therefore, the Head of BIN considers that the role of the Regional Government is very important.
“Therefore the role of the regional government is really needed to overcome the potential for a food crisis,” he said.
It’s not enough to get there, there is still the threat of a livelihood crisis by increasing layoff activities (PHK) so that the global unemployment rate is increasing.
It is known that layoffs have started to appear a lot due to swelling in financing the state and corporate budgets because there have been many applications of the green economy concept.
In fact, because the world is now starting to switch to a green economy, General Pol ( Retired ) Budi Gunawan believes that there are still many local governments in Indonesia who are not really ready for this scheme. So that if one applies it, it will actually increase the debt burden.
“If we mismanage it, it will have the potential to increase the debt burden and be vulnerable to technological changes,” he said.
Then the threat that will make 2023 another dark year is the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar due to high global inflation rates, which will also increase the burden on imports.
According to him, this could reduce people’s purchasing power, even though there are actually predictions that the Indonesian economy will not be affected by the recession, nevertheless, national economic growth in 2023 is expected to only be in the range of 4.7% to 5.3%.
Due to the same world inflation problem, the Head of BIN explained that there would be an even higher gap between groups in society. “The results of world intelligence foresight show that there will be regional and inter-group disparities in an area that are getting higher. So this has the potential to reduce growth in the area by approximately 1.2%,” he said.
