Currently the global economy is being shaken by various sectors such as extreme weather, the impact of war, and high world interest rates. The global economy in 2024-2025 is projected to remain below the long-term trend. However, while the economies of several countries are unstable, in 2024 Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to remain high and show a positive graph.
The economy during the transition period to the new government at the end of 2024 is expected to run well because Indonesia’s macro and micro economic strength is strong enough to face global instability. The government continues to boost macro and micro sectors, such as providing incentives to MSMEs, or reducing economic inequality. Unequal economic growth can cause economic inequality between community groups. This can create social tensions and trigger social and political problems. Therefore, the Government and policy makers pay attention to all these factors and take appropriate steps to ensure that Indonesia’s economic growth is not only high, but also sustainable and equitable for all levels of society.
BI Governor, Perry Warjiyo, said that Indonesia’s economic growth will remain strong in 2024. Indonesia’s economic growth is supported by domestic demand, especially household consumption and investment. He explained that building investment was higher than forecast, this was supported by the continuation of national strategic projects (PSN) in a number of regions and the development of private property, as a positive impact of government incentives.
He explained that the improvement in domestic demand was reflected in a number of indicators such as the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK), Real Sales Index and Manufacturing PMI which were in the optimistic zone. On the other hand, exports of goods are not expected to be strong in line with the decline in demand from main trading partner countries, especially CPO, steel and coal, while exports of services, especially tourism, grow strongly. With these various developments, economic growth in 2024 is estimated to be in the range of 4.7% – 5.5%.
His party will continue to strengthen the synergy of the government’s fiscal stimulus with BI’s macroprudential stimulus to encourage economic growth, especially domestic demand.
Secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Susiwijono Moegiarso, said that in 2024 Indonesia will grow higher, namely at 5.2%, then in 2025 it is projected to reach the range of 5.3-5.6%. Meanwhile, regarding the inflation rate, the Government is optimistic that Indonesia’s inflation will continue to be under control until the end of 2024, where the annual average will be below 2.80%. Then for 2025 Indonesia is confident that it will still be able to reach 2.5 ± 1%.
These two indicators, economic growth and inflation, indicate that the Government is very optimistic that the Indonesian economy will be better in 2024 and 2025. Several major government policy strategies have also been prepared to ensure national economic resilience in the future.
Apart from revitalizing conventional engines such as productivity, competitiveness, and infrastructure, the Government also wants to build new economic growth engines starting from industrialization, digitalization, to sustainable energy transition. Then strategies were also prepared to strengthen social resilience and empowerment through various social protections including maintaining the purchasing power of the poor and vulnerable, micro-financing and cash-intensive labor.
His party compared Indonesia’s economic indicators in 2014-2015 with 2024-2025. Various Indonesian macroeconomic indicators in 2024 show very good achievements, compared to the beginning of the Government (2014/2015), namely CAD is improving, the Primary Balance is positive, economic growth is well maintained, inflation is very controlled, the trade balance is in surplus, exports and imports are increasing, and Poverty & unemployment rates continue to decline.
Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Communications Department of Bank Indonesia (BI) Erwin Haryono said that Indonesia’s economic growth remained strong, supported by rising domestic demand and positive export performance despite the weakening global economy.
Spatially, increased consumption occurred in almost all regions and was followed by export performance which remained high in the Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua) region. With these various developments, economic growth in 2023 is estimated to be within the projected range of 4.5-5.3%.
Therefore, it is important for Indonesia to continue to promote structural reform, increase competitiveness, and reduce obstacles that hinder business growth such as thuggery, complicated procedures, and political instability. In addition, investment in human resources and innovation also needs to be increased to ensure that higher economic growth is also sustainable and inclusive.
By considering these factors, national economic growth in 2024 will be very strong and stable. Indonesia’s economic growth predictions show that positive trends will create a strong basis for optimism in national and global markets. Maintaining this momentum will require hard work and commitment from all stakeholders, both from the public and private sectors. Thus, through cooperation and appropriate policy steps, Indonesia has great potential to achieve strong and sustainable economic growth in the next few years.
